S&P 500 Is On Track To Complete A Pattern That Has Ended In Annual Gains 100% Of The Time

The S&P 500 finished February in the black, and history suggests it should be positive for the year.

The S&P 500 managed to close out February with a fourth straight month of gains.  In a recent research note, Sam Stovall of S&P Capital IQ reports that there have been 26 times since 1945 that the S&P 500 scored gains in both January and February.

In all 26 instances, Stovall says the "500" recorded a positive calendar year total return, averaging an advance—including dividends—of 24 percent and posting full-year results that were in the single digits just twice: 1987 and 2011.

Looking ahead, if the market performs well in January and February, history implies the bulls keep kicking their heels in March. As Stovall notes, following gains in both January and February, the S&P 500 records an average gain of 1.1 percent and had been positive 69 percent of the time.

Then again, before committing capital, Stovall also offers a careful reminder: history might suggest such bullish performance but certainly doesn't guarantee it.

Source:  Patti Domm, CNBC  

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