UNF economist projects sluggish economy post Obama re-election

As University of North Florida economist Paul Mason was about to address a real estate group at a Wednesday luncheon about the post-election economy, he said his speech might make some people spit out their food.

“Growth has been pretty mediocre,” Mason said of the distasteful economic assessment. But he also acknowledged the election campaign season and turbulence in Europe caused uncertainty that slowed economic activity.

Still, after the election was settled last week and Barack Obama got another four-year term as president, Mason said there are some bleak indicators of how the economy might progress in the wake of the “great recession.”

“The outcome just doesn’t seem to be very positive,” he said at the year-end economic meeting of the Northeast Florida Commercial Real Estate trade association at the Jacksonville Golf & Country Club.

Mason said the European Union is about to head into recession and, because it is the major trading partner of the United States, there is little doubt that will stunt economic growth here. He also said decreasing trade with China and the specter of increased domestic taxes also could slow any significant economic rebound.

In one of the few bright spots, local building permits for residential housing jumped from about 1,100 in August to 1,256 in September in Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties.

“There are positive signs in the housing industry,” Mason said. “So, it’s not all bad news in terms of growth. But there’s still a lot of room for improvement.”

But the nation still faces a stubborn unemployment rate, which was at 7.9 percent in October. Mason said this will be one of the most difficult factors to reverse and only the private sector will be able to improve such a stark figure.

But American businesses are slow to invest right now and banks are reticent to lend due to historically low interest rates. Until that trend reverses Mason said slow economic growth will continue.

Traci Jenks, president-elect of the real estate group, said there are plenty of upbeat trends beyond the gloomy projections.

“I think it’s kind of the same thing we’ve been hearing for the past four years. I personally am getting numb to the stories,” said Jenks. “I’m seeing quite positive things. … I’m seeing companies expanding in this market. I’m seeing things a little differently than the economists are seeing things.”

Source: Drew Dixon, Florida Times Union

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